Mahathir vs Kit Siang: CLASH OF THE TITANS

There is eager anticipation over whether Mahathir Mohamad would accept the challenge thrown by DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang to contest the Gelang Patah seat. At the moment, most Malaysians as well as the leaders from the Opposition do not quite believe that the 87-year-old will do so. But what if he does?

Well, if Mahathir does then it would be poetic justice of a sort. Karma overrides even the best-laid of human plans. And the Pakatan Rakyat trio of DAP, PAS and PKR would have no one but themselves to blame for the late-minute miscalculation, which can set back their Putrajaya ambition.

Make no mistake, Gelang Patah is in the bag for Kit Siang despite his rather dramatic claim that he is putting his political neck on the line by shifting from Ipoh Timur to help PR wrest Johor. With an electorate that is 53% Chinese, chances are even if the PR fielded a Martian, the Martian would win because of the PR flag. No need for Kit Siang to come personally at all.

As for Mahathir - if he accepted the Gelang Patah challenge - he may lose because he is already so reviled by the Chinese community. Even so, many Umno watchers believe he can be a significant game changer in Johor. How so?

Well, they say his mere acceptance alone would straightaway galvanize the Umno candidates there. Many are already feeling badly demoralized and it would be an enormous boost for them to see an 87-year-old, nasty and devilish though he may be, take up the cudgels to help defend their party.

Goal or own goal

Gelang Patah is just one seat. Even if Mahathir loses to Kit Siang, chances are the move would still help to re-energize Johor Umno. In such an event, DAP and its PR compatriots would have shot themselves in the foot by overplaying their hand.

Despite the fiery rhetoric, the name of the game does not seem to be who wins control of Johor. Kit Siang himself does not mention Johor at all in his list of 7 states that PR is most likely to win. His picks were Penang, Selangor, Kelantan, Kedah, Perak, Perlis and Negri Sembilan. So what is the Johor hoo-ha all about? The answer is likely to be a toxic cocktail of greed for seats disguised as strategy, and laced with political gamesmanship.

However, with the 13th general election so close at hand, perhaps it is better to focus on delivering the message directly to voters by working hard on the ceramah circuits, do walkabouts and meet-the-people sessions rather than get engrossed in winning brownie points on cyber space.

If it is psychological impact that the PR is after, perhaps it should evaluate if it has scored a goal or an own goal. Obviously, one man, two men, even three men cannot win Putrajaya all on their own. It is a team effort by a huge number of people and the same goes for Umno-BN. It is true Johor is no longer Umno-BN's bastion but for the PR to wrest it is still tough.

Umno is fully aware of this and they have played the game to their advantage, riding on the DAP's rather overblown rhetoric to further scare fence-sitters back to their fold on the grounds that Malay culture and way of life would become extinct when those 'Chinese chauvinists' come and try to turn Johor into another Singapore!

Najib should agree

So if Najib is smart, he should agree to field Mahathir in Gelang Patah. That would raise a badly-needed cheer all around Umno.

But would Mahathir accept? Hard to say but most likely he would. Mahathir is no 'scaredy-cat', and with his family fortune at stake, he would surely be motivated to rise to the occasion. It also fits in with his current mentality. While astute and still very sharp, Mahathir has shown signs of having entered a 'second childhood'. It is obvious he would adore being the centre of attention all over again. And should he win, WOW! To the Umno Malays, he would forever be etched in their memory as the ultimate hero. So chances are high, limelight-loving Mahathir would go for it!

It actually is a good opportunity for Mahathir to redeem some of his recent fall from grace. So far, all his tactics have failed to work. Everything salvo he has fired at the Opposition has backfired back at him. Malaysians are fed up of his race and religious politicking. He has no more cunning or visionary ideas left to help Umno-BN win.

But Kit Siang is right in saying Mahathir is now the de-facto PM of Malaysia. Despite lavishing praises in public and showing support, Mahathir knows Najib has too many weaknesses. So do the majority of other Umno leaders. This is why there is a tacit agreement that Mahathir should now lead the charge for Umno, instead of letting Najib mess up everything. Good or bad, they reckon his leadership is still anytime better than Najib's.

Some observers warn that Mahathir's return to Parliament, if he wins Gelang Patah, would signal the end of Najib's premiership. But is not Najib due to go anyway? Surely, Najib knows his own tenuous position. Also, fielding Mahathir does not automatically equate to the former prime minister beating Kit Siang and returning to Parliament. It is a gamble Najib can actually take with a fair bit of comfort. The thing is, the decision may not even be his to make!

Lousy leader with bad vision and ideas

Fortunately, that view is strictly restricted to Umno. The majority of Malaysians see Mahathir with different eyes, he really has a lot to answer for. Gelang Patah with Mahathir on board would help to galvanize Umno members in Johor and perhaps in other states too. However, it would not reverse the PR's advance in Penang, Selangor or Kelantan.

Mahathir and Umno must face it. Mahathir - the longest serving PM and Umno president - has been a rather lousy leader with really bad ideas and vision. Look at his economic policies. Look the corruption and disunity in the country. Look at the flip-flops in the education system. But just like Nero playing the fiddle when Rome burned, Mahathir doesn't see this.

In fact, he seems to think he is a genius of sorts and God's gift to Malaysia. Really, he should attend one of the recent ceramahs held by Umno or MCA and see the real situation for himself. The air of rejection is tangible, although exactly to what extent, can only be discovered on balloting day itself.

Whatever it is, Mahathir who founded the current version of the Umno party - Umno Baru - is now facing the greatest challenge of his life. And it is not the prospect of losing the Gelang Patah seat but the entire federal government itself.

During his 22 years of rule, Mahathir has faced several crises. The most critical was the challenge for the premiership by Tengku Razaleigh that led to the 'original' UMNO being declared illegal by the court.

Mahathir was also challenged by Musa Hitam and Anwar but he prevailed over both men. The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 was another challenge that led to his very public quarrel with Jewish billionaire George Soros.

Now, unlike the other challenges, the latest dare from Kit Siang is one that Mahathir should be glad to accept! His words during a speech made on Sunday were unusually hard, perhaps aimed to draw out Kit Siang. Mahathir called on Johoreans to make their state the ‘burial ground’ for the DAP leader - politically that is.

Gelang Patah a cinch for Kit Siang

As for the 73-year-old Kit Siang, he too is unlikely to have thrown the gauntlet without some mental calculation. But perhaps in his confidence, he become has somewhat become arrogant.

Despite demurring about his prospects, it is unlikely the DAP adviser would have made the offer if he did not believe it was impossible for Mahathir to win given the high Chinese population there, and that the Skudai state seat falls under the Gelang Patah parliamentary umbrella.

Skudai is already controlled by DAP's Boo Cheng Hau - one of the key reasons why Boo refused to yield the Gelang Patah seat to the PKR. Yes, sad to say, selfishness and vested interest also abound in the PR.

Reversing the negative tide for Umno

Some Umno watchers think Mahathir is too busy to take on Gelang Patah. Frankly, he does not need to contest or win the seat. He can sacrifice all the areas with Chinese-majority as these are very few in number but he would make sure that none of the Malay-majority areas are won by PR.

One must remember that the Johor Malays want their cake and eat it. Because the state is the 'birth place' of Umno, perhaps the Malays in Johor more than elsewhere in the country feel defensive and strongly about the Malay 'supremacy' issues.

If not careful, PR’s hope of a political tsunami in Johor may not come true. Any psychological advantage gained by Johor Umno as a result of Kit Siang’s perceived arrogance could form the initial momentum for Umno and Mahathir to reverse the tide in the other states as well, especially in the Malay heartland.

Busily infighting Umno leaders, members and supporters could be brought to their senses by Mahathir's perceived sacrifice and close ranks. This in turn could have a spillover effect on the Malay fence-sitters.

All this is bad news for PR and a factor they should have watched out for more carefully right from the start. PR should do some damage control or be more prudent in Johor before it is too late. Just as we have seen too often in football games, anything can happen before the 'final' whistle.

Malaysia Chronicle