Disaster in the making for BN?

In all elections and in any contest, there are the favourites and the underdogs as well as the surprise candidates, and in the GE13 in Malaysia it is no different with our own list of expectations.

Top of the list is Anwar Ibrahim, who is the leader of the Pakatan Rakyat opposition formation and the favourite to seize the post of prime minister of Malaysia, a feat never actually possible by the opposition in the country’s 55 years of history.

Anwar, once the prime minister designate chosen by Dr Mahathir Mohamad to take the helm of the government, fell in disgrace in 1998 only to rise again from the ashes of historical isolation and he deserves the highlights.

The GE13 is seen as the election crafted by Anwar, with his strategic meddling against the Barisan National’s, forcing the ruling coalition to push the election dates nearly to the limit of legality.

The personality of Anwar has overshadowed the four years of Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak rule, to the point that the latter has constantly refused – much to Anwar’s expectations – to debate the opposition leader.

A debate that would have been the final nail in the coffin of the BN had it been held in the run-up to the polling date.

Anwar survived a slew of sodomy and sexual misconduct accusations, winning several cases against his most virulent and hard core opponents while he downplayed the hard hitting criticism of Mahathir – his nemesis – and that of his former friends turned foes.

The major timelines of Anwar’s political career can be summed as follows:

Vibrant youth leader, founding member of the Malay Youth Islamic Organisation or ABIM, had a rapid rise of fame and leadership position within Umno, he catered for the poor and needy with low cost housing projects and many other crucial economic measures.

As opposition leader, he united a divided opposition group leading them to a massive victory in the 2008 elections, winning five states and a whopping 82 parliamentary seats. A feat never seen before in Malaysian political history.

Anwar is, once again, set to create another historic moment in Malaysia if he grabs the PM post from Najib.

The one element that could prevent Anwar from making history is his apparent lack of support among the Malays in the Malay heartland, in villages and in remote areas in Sabah and Sarawak.

These votes may be crucial for the opposition to overturn the tide in the GE13.

Disaster in the making

Unfortunately for the BN and the Umno, Najib is on the defensive and is going in the GE13 with the psychology of an exiting PM, with his guaranteeing a smooth handover of power if the BN were to lose, and this in itself is a very historical first in Malaysia.

Najib shows that he is feeling the intensity of Anwar’s looming shadow over his regime, with the outright copying of the main economic proposals found in the Pakatan manifesto after haranguing the Malaysians over the so called bankruptcy that is looming if the Pakatan were to rule Malaysia.

The only thing that can keep Najib in power is the potential support from a majority of the Malays towards the Umno and a divided Indian Malaysian vote, which would leave the Pakatan with the certainty of the Chinese votes alone.

However, the overbearing presence of Malay right wing extremists within the Umno and the shadowy role played by Mahathir in the current government affairs, may cost Najib his job and the BN seems to be aware of this disaster in the making.

Najib escaped a humiliating defeat in 1999 when he won by a slim margin, defending his parliamentary seat but his popularity as PM is undoubted among a large number of Malaysians, garnering support and admiration to a certain extent in the shortest time possible.

Malaysia could be living the last moments of the BN-Umno in power in this decade as the Pakatan is expected to perform and to deliver if they are to win the elections, thus relegating Najib as the last PM of the BN-Umno era.

The Altantunya Shaariibuu case, the Sodomy 2 and the long delay in calling for the elections could bog Najib down whereas his own statement that he needs his team to win and not only him suggests that there is an eel under the rock.

The other main leaders to watch in this GE13 are the Kelantan Menteri Besar, Nik Aziz Nik Mat, who it is being disclosed may be on his last campaign, with PAS president Hadi Awang who is also on the way out after the GE13.

Nevertheless, a game changer would be PAS winning more seats than its partners put together, which would mean the PKR and DAP would have a headache on their hands as Hadi may be proposed as the next PM.

Nevertheless, Anwar’s main caution in the coalition are Nik Aziz, Lim Kit Siang and Lim Guan Eng and they would probably combine their forces together to ensure that the prime minister issue is resolved peacefully with Anwar in power.

Kit Siang is another major political figure who is probably going into the battle for the last time, in the event of a victory by the Pakatan. He will surely be survived by his son, Guan Eng who will then play a bigger role than the one his plays as the chief minister of Penang.

Nurul’s battle against the minister

In Umno, Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is seen as the rising figure who can replace Najib if the BN-Umno wins with a tinier margin than that of 2008.

He will surely sideline Najib in this case, thus the focus on the government side is on how Muhyiddin will fare in his seat, which is seen as a safe seat for the Umno.

Among the crowd pullers, we have Chua Jui Meng who is the PKR Johor figurehead.

Jui Meng is seen as the real crowd puller for the PKR in Johor as his influence among the Chinese voters in the Umno state is undeniable – if he is seen on the soap box of the PKR on the campaign trail, it may simply mean the Johor Chinese would shift gun towards the opposition.

Last but not least, all eyes should be on Nurul Izzah Anwar, who will be battling the FT minister Raja Nong Chik Zainal Abidin, a battle seen as crucial for the minister as well as for Nurul though in all logic, the daughter of Anwar should beat the incumbent minister.

Ali Cordoba writes extensively on local politics.

-FMT