Reinforcing widespread prediction of the closest fought general election in the nation's history, a local public opinion specialist said that some 65 parliamentary seats could be won by razor thin majorities.
"In the 222-seat national parliament 65 seats can be won with under three percent margin. This shows how close things are," said Ibrahim Suffian of independent pollster Merdeka Centre for Policy Research.
Ibrahim, speaking to Al Jazeera's 101 East talkshow, whose transcript has been made available to Harakahdaily, attributed this to the influx of new and media-savvy young voters who have access to "all kinds of information".
He pointed out that such a "digital divide" - between voters exposed to the internet and those in the rural areas where voters are "more cut off" - will also decide the kind of issues they strongly feel about, including corruption, which according to Ibrahim has topped a list of public concerns in the last 18 months.
"Voters that are having greater access to information see this as problem number one and are likely going to use this as an issue that motivates them to vote. Those in the rural areas who are more cut off continue to see the government as the benefactor who provides aid and financial service to them to get through a hard life," he added.
The show, to be aired tomorrow, also pits BN's Pulai MP Nur Jazlan Mohamed with DAP's publicity chief and Petaling Jaya Utara MP, Tony Pua, with members of the audience comprising activists, politicians and ordinary Malaysians.
Both panelists are grilled with questions on such issues as consensus among PR parties, electoral corruption disguised as government handouts, racially charged rhetoric and the choice of the next prime minister.
* 101 East will be aired tomorrow (April 19) on Al Jazeera news channel (Astro 513) at 6.30am and 5.30 pm local time, with repeats on April 20 (11.30 am) and April 22 (12.30 am).
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Thursday, April 18, 2013
65 parliament seats to be won with razor thin margin
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Barisan Nasional leaders are confident the coalition's line-up will appeal to voters.They believe so because Barisan will be fielding many new faces in the general election.
ReplyDeleteMCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek has faith that the people will choose the right and best representatives. MCA, he said, had given the assurance that it would support all the candidates in the coalition's line-up.
ReplyDelete“Most importantly, we must ensure all our component parties win big, regardless of whether the candidates are from Umno, MCA or MIC,” he said. On whether MCA was happy with the list of candidates, Dr Chua said the party had itself proposed 50% new faces to woo young voters.
ReplyDeleteGerakan president Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon said Barisan's list could help ensure the coalition's victory in the elections. “In the spirit of Barisan's partnership, the list is the best strategy possible. Gerakan will field at least 50% new faces,” he said.
ReplyDeleteSUPP president Datuk Seri Peter Chin Fah Kui said his party would see three new faces introduced, adding that it “would try to win every seat”.
ReplyDeleteLiberal Democratic Party president Datuk V.K. Liew was satisfied with both the list and the candidates chosen from his party. “We are confident we can win all the seats we are contesting,” he said, confirming he would defend his Sandakan parliamentary seat.
ReplyDeletePenang Barisan chief Teng Chang Yeow said the state was expected to announce its list of candidates today.
ReplyDeleteSarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud was happy with the list given by Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak as this was done based on consultations with various component parties in Sarawak.
ReplyDeleteMIC president Datuk Seri G. Palanivel said he would study the list before deciding to propose any change to the Prime Minister.
ReplyDeleteUmno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin also expressed his satisfaction over the representation of youth in Barisan's candidate list, saying “we are confident that people will vote for our candidates as there are many new and young voters in this elections”.
ReplyDeleteThe Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI), a private think-tank, says the ruling Barisan Nasional will win the 13th general election (GE13) and that much of the support among rural Malays, which was absent in 2008, has returned to Umno and Barisan Nasional.
ReplyDeleteIn its analysis, ASLI said BN is expected to win 123 to 135 seats in the next elections on this basis, but could reach as high as 150 if Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak can attract Indian and undecided Chinese voters as well.
ReplyDelete“From my interpretation of the research if the swing of Malay rural voters to Umno is strong, then the battle for rural Malay votes will favour BN. “The coming election will basically be decided by rural voters in rural constituencies,” ASLI’s CEO /director Michael Yeoh Oon Khing told The Malaysian Reserve in an e-mail interview. “Nevertheless, what can be certain is that the two big winners in the coming elections that are expected to be on April 14 or 21, will be Umno and the DAP.”
ReplyDeleteYeoh said trends showed Indian rural and semi-urban voters have shifted back to BN while urban voters of all races are still with the opposition. Undecided voters would pay close attention to choice of candidates and how the campaign unfolds to make their choice.
ReplyDeleteASLI says it is confident that Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud would deliver 100% of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera seats, giving the majority to win Sarawak while it is confident that Umno should do well in Sabah, leading BN to regain control of the state government.
ReplyDeleteThe analysis said the Pakatan Rakyat coalition should retain Kelantan and Penang, but BN could regain Penang if there is solid Malay backing and if the MCA and Gerakan could win just four more seats.
ReplyDeleteASLI is neutral on Selangor, saying that the battle for that state would be the toughest. It is confident on BN winning Kedah and Perak on the back of support from the Malay swingback to Umno, adding that DAP will still hold on to its Chinese majority seats in Perak.
ReplyDeleteThe analysis was done based on telephone interviews and discussions with different groups as well as other surveys done by other researchers, said Yeoh, adding that the demographics are broad-based covering different ages and ethnic groups.
ReplyDeleteIn a related news, an online media highlighted a Morgan Stanley Research report that said: “If the ruling BN loses by winning less than 50% of the seats up for grabs, investors would likely see this as a ‘negative risk event’.”
ReplyDeleteIt added that BN losing would affect leadership and government stability thereby “postponing the reform agenda undertaken by the country in the near term until political stability is restored”.
ReplyDeleteA strong mandate for the Barisan Nasional will be good news for the country as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will be able to push through the reforms needed to lift the economy to the next stage of development, say experts.
ReplyDeleteCredit Suisse analysts said there would likely be a relief rally should the current government win. “The Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) can charge ahead in full steam, driven by Pemandu (Performance Delivery Unit), which tells us the pipeline for private investments in 2013 continues to be robust,” the investment house said in a recent report.
ReplyDeleteIt said the market expected Barisan to remain in power, albeit with a lesser majority. Credit Suisse, however, added that the quality of Barisan's win was crucially important as a slim majority could signal political uncertainties. “If Barisan wins by a slim majority, the stock market might worry over an internal leadership challenge or possible horse-trading,” the company said.
ReplyDeleteIt added that Barisan seats in the peninsular versus those in Sabah and Sarawak would determine how much horse-trading would happen. “If Barisan's hold in the peninsular is strong, then the bargaining power of the Sabah and Sarawak politicians will be significantly reduced. “On the other hand, if a Barisan win in the peninsular is weak or if Barisan loses to Pakatan Rakyat, this spells a period of further uncertainties, as horse-trading may break out,” it said.
ReplyDeleteThe company said Najib's standing in Umno would depend on the number party seats he delivered. “The bigger, the better. Najib's power base could be strengthened if he delivers more Umno seats,” said the investment house. “A big win in terms of Umno seats would signal leadership stability within the party. “Again, we believe the number of Umno seats will likely increase, at the expense of other Barisan coalition parties,” it said.
ReplyDeleteIn 2008, Umno won 79 parliamentary seats, representing 36% of the Dewan Rakyat, while its coalition partners won 61 seats, taking the total to 63%. Following a potential win by Barisan, Credit Suisse said the ringgit should become stronger.
ReplyDeleteStocks that could positively benefit from Barisan's win include that of CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd, Genting Bhd, Genting Malaysia Bhd, Bumi Armada Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd, UEM Land Holdings Bhd and IJM Land Bhd.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Bloomberg reported that several brokerages including CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets and RHB Investment Bank Bhd have warned of a market sell-off if the Opposition takes control, citing concerns over government stability and changes to investment projects approved under Najib.
ReplyDeleteYear-to-date, Malaysia's stock exchange FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI has been the worst performer in South-East Asia, due to the election overhang and the switch to higher beta markets.
ReplyDeleteHowever, due to the under-performing Malaysian market, analysts see value starting to emerge. “We believe if there is a knee-jerk downward revision post-GE13. This would be a good opportunity to accumulate well-managed Malaysian stocks,” Credit Suisse said.
ReplyDeleteThe investment house said it would highlight DiGi.Com Bhd, Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd and Genting Plantations Bhd, as their fundamentals remain strong although they have been under-performing year-to-date.
ReplyDeleteSabah has been allocated RM10.723 billion to implement 424 new projects in the first phase (2011-2012) of the Rolling Plan under the Tenth Malaysia Plan (10MP).
ReplyDeletehe said Sabah’s overall expenses under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) until Dec 31, last year was 81.30 per cent compared to 84.48 per cent at the national level.
ReplyDeleteHe voiced confidence that the percentage would increase when we obtain the adjusted Accounts Payable by Jan. 22.
ReplyDeleteThe development of capacities and investments in the energy sector will create jobs opportunities which can contribute to the economic growth of both the country and State.
ReplyDeleteState government encourages oil palm industry especially large plantation companies in Sabah to build biomass power generation plants to process Empty Fruit Bunches (EFB) at their respective factories.
ReplyDelete