Mahathir-Tengku Razaleigh COMPLOT to take out Najib?

The way things are stacking up for the coming UMNO election indicates that Prime Minister Najib Razak will win the presidency unopposed, while his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin is also likely to be retained as the No.2 man in the party.

But for the 3 elected vice-presidencies, there are at least 5 contestants with Hishamuddin Hussein, Zahid Hamidi and Shafie Apdal being the incumbents. Former chief ministers Ali Rustam and Isa Samad will be out to unseat them. And it looks like Musa Aman, the Sabah chief minister, will soon confirm throwing his hat into the ring.

If Musa, who has also said he might just go for a supreme council seat, decides not to challenge Shafie, whom he is very likely to beat, then Najib may get his dream team. This would include Hisham, Shafie and Isa Samad as his 'strongmen' at the VP level, with Ali Rustam and Zahid Hamidi pushed out and forced to find other ways to hang onto their power in the party.

Najib has also won the support of Wanita, Youth wings

At the Women's wing or Wanita, it looks like the scandal-tainted Shahrizat will retain her seat as the head after Pengerang MP Azalina Othman decided to withdraw.

For the Wanita No. 2 spot, Suraya Yaakob and Azizah Mohd Dun will be contesting while outgoing Puteri chief Rosnah Abdul Rashid has been mentioned as a third contestant.

Take note that but all except for Azalina are Najib’s staunch supporters. This is why Azalina was persuaded to opt out as she knows she will be the odd person out and would be hit by troubled presidency even should she contest and win.

Umno Youth Chief Khairy too will not be challenged but deputy Razali Ibrahim will automatically be disqualified due to age limit. As a result, there will be at least two aspirants for the post of Umno Youth deputy and these are Jamawi Jaafar and Lokman Adam. Whoever wins, Najib will be assured of complete support because they are loyal to Khairy and Khairy owes 'everything' t Najib.

In fact, Khairy is now so grateful to Najib that many in Umno are getting quite sarcastic with him. They say that his recent objection to the government's proposed revealing of the names of defaulting PTPTN borrowers was only a ‘sandiwara’ to show his solidarity with the people, while in fact Najib is his political savior and he knows it.

But how will the final line-up really be like?

Greed more important than what's good for the party

In politics anything is possible, and as long as the elections at the various UMNO branches all over the country have not completed, there are various possibilities. The branches' meeting and elections will be carried out in October and it is at these meetings that they will select which delegates get to to the UMNO general assembly.

As such, the aspirants for the top UMNO posts at the federal level are now making all out efforts to ensure that their people get elected at the various branches so as to be able to dominate at the state level, without which, contesting at the national level would be a total waste of time and resources.

At the branch level, the grassroots are clamoring that people with credibility and integrity get elected, so that they would be able to replace the present corrupt lot from top to bottom. Sad to say, their voices are likely to go unheeded.

In UMNO, it is not about integrity and credibility; it is all about greed. And despite the various possibilities, UMNO is not really that unpredictable.

In UMNO the ingredients needed to feed the greed of its leaders are shrewdness, clout, money and power. The person who has the most of these ingredients will prevail because the UMNO selection system is based on patronage and teamwork.

As such, as long as all the ingredients are present, the patronage and team could be set up and this is what Najib has been doing to ensure that he stays on top because he knows he does not have enough of everything.

Muhyiddin, Zahid and now Ku Li

Muhyiddin has 'nothing' in terms of assets as compared with Najib and therefore if he goes after the No. 1 position without someone like former premier Mahathir Mohamad backing him, it would be political suicide.

But even if Mahathir cannot convince Muhyiddin to challenge Najib, he can still get someone else to challenge Najib. Who would this person be?

Now, Zahid Hamidi, the Home Minister, has been mentioned as a possibility. There is another one. This person is none other than Ku Li or Tengku Razaleigh, the Gua Musang veteran and former Finance minister, who once nearly beat Mahathir for the party presidency.

So if Mahathir decides it is too risky to trust Najib to look after the political prospects of his son, Mukhriz Mahathir, the current Kedah chief minister, he might just seal a deal with Ku Li.

In politics, there are no permanent adversaries or friends, and if they wanted too, it would be a cinch to cook up a plausible explanation as to why it was now imperative for Mahathir and Ku Li to make up and take on 'bag guy' Najib before he 'runs the country o the dogs'.

Indeed, Ku Li is a viable candidate to take on Najib. Even though Ku Li is 76, he has nothing to lose. The support from his Gua Musang stronghold won't waver even should he fail.

In fact, those outside Umno might be disappointed if Ku Li did not stand up to the corruption-tainted Najib as a matter of principle and at the very least make a stab for the presidency and try to bring reform to time-warped Umno.

Mahathir-Ku Li complot cannot be ruled out

But Najib is not dumb either. He and his advisers know that whatever Ku Li is planning, the Gua Musang veteran would still need the support of delegates and this year, some 145,000 to 150,000 will be casting their votes on whom should form the central leadership at Umno.

In this regard, Najib is one step ahead. He managed to foil an early attempt to depose him in Parliament initiated by several Sarawak MPs who went to Ku Li with their grievances. Whatever their proposals, their venture fizzled out, most probably with the help of Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud.

Yes, even though Najib had tried to get Taib to quit as chief minister, the two men can still see eye to eye and it appears to be in their common interest to allow each other to remain in power rather than take risks with a new man at the helm.

Even so, if Mahathir is desperate enough to remove Najib from power, he would go for it - with or without Taib Mahmud 'converted' to his side.

However, Najib will try his best to make sure that the Mahathir-Ku Li complot does not materialize. Umno insders point at how Najib's his loyalists in the form of Raja Nong Chik, Tengku Adnan as well Utusan - the Umno newspaper - have rushed to ridicule Ku Li for even thinking of challenging Najib. They even go to the extent of publicly humiliating Ku Li by saying he is far too old for the job and should retire.

They should be careful because what goes around comes around. Their rudeness could well be the tipping point that triggers Ku Li into making a final bid for the presidency, a post he has coveted since the 1980s.

Things are not that neat for Najib

Despite having laid the ground and gaining the support of the Youth and Wanita wings, Najib's strategy to retain the presidency is not really looking so good. His plan is not fool proof. No matter how one looks at it, Najib is the most scandal-tainted UMNO leader ever. His Achilles’ heel is not just the heap of corruption allegations leveled against him but also his well-known fondness for women.

One never knows. Mahathir may still be keeping the by now 'legendary' photo of Najib wearing just a towel in a hotel room in Port Dickson in the company of a well-known female artiste.

The Scorpene-Altantuya scandal is also still hot and haunting Najib despite recent the high-profile acquittal of his bodyguards for the murder of the Mongolian translator, who was said to have been his mistress.

Najib's wife Rosmah is still irritating to many in Umno, including Mahathir.

So in the end, it all depends on how keen Mahathir is in trying to achieve whatever he desires. Mahathir may use these scandals as leverage to upset the present line-up so as to regain the upper hand on determining who should be the UMNO president.

The going is getting more and more interesting and hotter than ever as the October 19 Umno poll nears.

Malaysia Chronicle